Recently, the EUR/USD pair has been trading sideways at the price of 1.0900. According to the 4H time frame, I found a broken rising wedge (bearish pattern). The price also did successful re-test of the upward diagonal, which is another sign of weakness. My advice is to watch for potential selling opportuntiies. The downward targets […]

There’s plenty of known market movers scheduled for Friday, the 28th of April. Let’s find out more. German Retail Sales for March are out at 6 AM. Sales rebounded strongly in February, fully offsetting a 1% drop the previous month. Swiss KOF Economic Barometer for April follows at 7. The Index continued to increase in […]

Let’s take a look at the benchmark interbank price data for the three non-cross majors with the primary Dukascopy Spike Controller. Euro/Dollar’s long term average spread is point 36 pips and maximum separation has been 1.3 pips. Daily high and low difference is 65 pips and it was posted as the pair advanced by point […]

Price has reached our selling area and reacted off it. We remain bearish below major resistance at 111.37 (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal resistance, Fibonacci extension) and we expect a reaction below this level for a drop to at least 109.41 support (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support, price gap). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major resistance at 91% […]

Price is now testing major support at 0.7456 (Fibonacci extension, Elliott wave theory) and we expect to see a bounce above this level to at least 0.7520 resistance (Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap resistance). Stochastic (34,5,3) is seeing major support above the 7% level where we expect a bounce from. Buy above 0.7456. Stop loss at […]

ECB meeting: Not ready to change tune yet • ECB is widely expected to stand pat today. Focus will probably be on Draghi’s press conference. • He is likely to maintain a cautious tone, offering no hints regarding a reduction in stimulus yet. • May instead point to still-low inflation (political risks have still not […]

Concerns over an imminent U.S.-China trade war quickly evaporated this month after an executive meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping ended on friendly terms, setting the stage for a potentially amicable relationship between the world’s greatest economic powers. The U.S. president hosted his Chinese counterpart over a two-day summit in Mar-a-Lago April 6-7, where […]

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Good morning, let’s see how the interbank lines up with the technicals at 8 AM GMT. Euro/Dollar’s hourly chart is split between green and neutral models. The mid-term turns neutral with 5 studies, and the daily outlook brings 4 green models, in line with the 20% long interbank. There’s green across the table for the […]

Global macro analysis for 27/04/2017: During the overnight press conference, the Bank of Japan presented its outlook for the economic growth for 2017 – 2018. Policymakers revised their projections and currently they expect real gross domestic product (GDP) to expand 1.6% in the fiscal year that began in April, higher than the 1.5% predicted in […]

Since April 2016, the USD/CAD pair has been trending upward within the depicted ascending channel. In December 2016, a bullish breakout above 1.3300 (50% Fibonacci level) was expected to allow a further advance toward 1.3700-1.3750 (the upper limit of the depicted channel). However, significant bearish rejection was expressed around 1.3580 (recently established top). During the […]

In December 2016, the NZD/USD pair was trapped within the depicted price range (0.6860-0.6990) until a bullish breakout occurred. A bullish breakout above 0.6960-0.7000 allowed the pair to head toward the price level of 0.7100 (the key level) which failed to provide sufficient bearish pressure on the pair. Bullish persistence above 0.7100 allowed a further […]

US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin announced Trump’s tax reform plan in a press conference yesterday; the biggest tax reform plan since 1986. Trump has proposed slashing corporate tax from the current rate of 35% to 15%; from one of the highest in the world to one of the lowest. In terms of personal income tax, the […]

Politics used to be very different, policies would be made and people would be angry, occasionally throwing the odd egg or two. The game has reached a whole new level now, with Twittemocracy, Politicians… be afraid. You can view this video and the full video archive on the Dukascopy TV page: http://www.dukascopy.com/tv/en/#211253 Смотрите Dukascopy TV […]

Trading plan for 27/04/2017: Trump’s tax plan did not bring surprises and financial markets cooled earlier optimism. The Bank of Japan kept the policy unchanged without significantly affecting the USD/JPY rate. Reports that the White House does not intend to break the Nafta agreement, are helping CAD and MXN. In Asia, Nikkei loses 0.2 percent […]

USD/CAD has been quite volatile recently while USD seemed to be gaining well over CAD. Yesterday CAD had mixed result of Retail Sales report, where Core Retail Sales was published with a slight positive figure at -0.1% which was expected to be at -0.2% and Retail Sales was published negative at -0.6% which was expected […]

The Dollar index bounced as expected but the price got rejected at the upper channel boundary and at the kijun-sen. Price is vulnerable to a new lower low but I still expect a bounce higher towards 100 as there are bullish divergence signs in the charts. Blue lines – bearish channel The Dollar index did […]

GOLD, as expected, bounced towards short-term cloud resistance but got rejected. Recent lows are important short-term support. A break above yesterday highs could signal that an important short-term low is in. Gold price is trading below the Kumo (cloud) of the 4-hour chart. Price is still inside the bearish channel and yesterday it reached the […]

Hello traders, let’s see where the Support and Resistance levels stand this Thursday morning. Euro/Dollar is trading in the range limited by R1 of 1 0920 and S1 of 1 0890. The lowest resistance line has found 5 matches, and Price Channel Indicator Upper Line is among the 5 models for R2. A 6 month […]

Wave summary: EUR/NZD did not clear the base channel resistance as expected, which has led to a sideways consolidation, but it should only be a matter of time before this consolidation drives prices higher towards 1.6000 and above towards the ideal wave iii target seen at 1.6656. Short-term look for consolidation within the 1.5670 – […]

Wave summary: We have seen a peak 121.98, but the question is, whether this peak of completed wave iii for more upside closer to 123.42 to complete wave A or have wave A already completed with the high seen at 121.98? At this point, it really does not matter, as both scenarios call for a […]

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Overview GOLD price has settled at the critical support level of 1,263.17. Please note that stochastics is showing clear signals of oversold market consitions. This creates momentum that we await to encourage a further rise again. This keeps the bullish scenario valid in the short term. Be aware that breaking 1,263.17 and holding below it […]

Overview Silver price managed to reach the bullish channel’s support while stochastic touched the oversold levels. We expect this factor to make the price resume the overall bullish trend after the temporary decline that was setting the tone for the trade yesterday. Therefore, we believe there are still odds of bouncing higher in the short […]

GOLD price is trading around important Fibonacci support area of $1,265. Gold price is expected to at least make a bounce towards $1,275-80 where important short-term resistance is found. Gold could very well have finished the entire corrective decline. There are bearish divergence signs in the 4-hour chart that imply a back test at least […]